GESTIÓN ADAPTATIVA DEL RIESGO: ESTRATEGIAS INNOVADORAS PARA PROYECTOS COMPLEJOS
Abstract
Complex projects present uncertainty, emergencies, and nonlinear relationships that challenge traditional risk management approaches, which can offer both advantages and disadvantages in projects. This article proposes an adaptive risk management framework that incorporates principles from chaos and complexity theories, agile practices (Scrum, Extreme Programming), scaled frameworks (SAFe), and formal risk management standards such as PMBOK and ISO 31000. It also analyzes qualitative and quantitative methods and proposes a hybrid, iterative, and feedback-driven architecture that enables the identification, assessment, monitoring, and adaptation of risk responses in highly uncertain projects. The article concludes with practical recommendations, resilience metrics, and adaptive governance for project management in academic and organizational contexts.
Downloads
References
• Del Río Cortina, A. A., & Cárdenas Quintero, B. G. (2018). Dinámica de sistemas: una forma de optimizar la gestión del riesgo. Revista EAN, (SPE), 125–143.
• Doria-Parra, A., López-Benavidez, L., Bonilla-Ferrer, M., & Parra-Cera, G. (2020). Metodología para la implementación de la gestión de riesgo en un sistema de gestión de calidad. Signos. Investigación en Sistemas de Gestión, 12(1), 123-135.https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/10226621.pdf
• ISO. (2018). ISO 31000:2018 – Risk management – Guidelines. International Organization for Standardization.
• Salazar Duque, Ó. (2017). Mirada de la gestión moderna desde la teoría del caos y la transdisciplina. Universidad & Empresa, 19(33), 137–161. https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/empresa/a.5234
• Salgado, D., & Awad, G. (2022). Metodología para el análisis estratégico cuantitativo en proyectos a partir del análisis de riesgos. Estudios Gerenciales, 38(165), 450-464. http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?pid=S0123-59232022000400424&script=sci_arttext
• Scaled Agile, Inc. (s. f.). SAFe – Scaled Agile Framework. https://framework.scaledagile.com/
• Schwaber, K., & Sutherland, J. (2020). The Scrum Guide (2020). Scrum.org. https://scrumguides.org/docs/scrumguide/v2020/2020-Scrum-Guide-US.pdf
• Uhl-Bien, M., Marion, R., & McKelvey, B. (2007). Complexity Leadership Theory: Shifting leadership from the industrial age to the knowledge era. The Leadership Quarterly, 18(4), 298–318. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.leaqua.2007.04.002.
• Virine, L., & Trumper, M. (2007). Predicting the unpredictable: How to analyze project risks using event chain methodology.
• Vose, D. (2008). Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Copyright (c) 2025 Iberoamerican Journal of Complexity and Economics Sciences
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The authors transfer exclusively the right to publish their article to the Iberoamerican Journal of Complexity and Economics Sciences, which may formally edit or modify the approved text to comply with its own editorial regulations and with universal grammatical standards, before its publication; Likewise, our journal may translate the approved manuscripts into as many languages as it deems necessary and disseminate them in various countries, always giving public recognition to the author or authors of the research.
